August 8: Today is the 16th anniversary of the beginning of democratic change in Burma. Unfortunately, this noble goal has proved difficult to attain. Since that time, the country in general and its pro-democracy elements in particular have gone through hell and fire. Since the junta cheated its way into power during the May 1990 election, the political and economic situation inside Burma has not changed because the same military leaders are still in power and the opposition leaders, including Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, are still under house arrest.

Over the past decade, the junta has become perfected its form of diplomatic chess with both the regional and international communities. At the regional level, Burma slipped into Asean through a sort of fast-track system. Rangoon was able to take advantage of Asean’s deep-rooted fear of China. It deliberately played up the extent of China’s expansive military and commercial influences in the mid 1990s.

At that time, China and Asean did not enjoy the kind of intimacy that they currently do. As a result, Asean immediately responded to China’s south-looking aspirations by unconditionally taking in Burma as a new member.

In hindsight, Asean made a huge mistake in doing so because since Burma was admitted, Rangoon has refused to cooperate with Asean in the way that it should. In fact, Rangoon has on occasion lied to its supposed friends.

Asean also failed to convince the world, especially the European Union ‘ which has high-stake ties with Asean ‘ that the grouping is capable of pressure its pariah colleague into being a bit less oppressive. But having embraced Burma, Asean’s hands are tied.

To protect Asean solidarity, the grouping has had to support Burma in both regional and internal forums. There is no other way. Furthermore, Asean is not a rule-based organisation. Still, there are regulations or principles enshrined in Asean documents that would allow the grouping to kick Burma out if it had the will to do so.

When former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad commented on this arrangement, he was aware of what the future held. The point is that Asean must use its mechanisms to change Burma.

Burma continues to outfox Asean leaders. By embracing Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has acted as Rangoon’s councillor, Burma has survived.

At the Bali Summit last year, Thaksin was able to convince the Asean leaders to give the recently installed Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt a chance. Look at what has transpired since.

With the Thai and Burmese leaders working together, the first Bangkok Process was born last year.

Its aim was to increase the legitimacy of the Rangoon regime, through Bangkok. However, the process, which attracted an assortment of Western countries and Asean members, did not produce the kind of support Burma was looking for. So a second Bangkok Process was called for, and subsequently
cancelled to make way for the ongoing national convention in Burma.

Rangoon is hoping that with a new constitution, which it expects to complete next year, the West will yield and recognise this pariah state. Perhaps. Some of them will continue to reject Burma, but some may soften their stances. It is this kind of divide-and-rule tactic that has saved the junta on numerous other occasions.

Now the regime is seeking an end to the sanctions that have been imposed upon it through the assistance of lobbyists in centres of power both in Europe and the United States.

The central argument of this effort is that Burma should be given a chance to receive foreign aid, after all the junta has been running for so long, providing whatever social services, such as health and education for the people, that it can. On this basis alone, these lobbyists have argued, the regime has achieved legitimacy.

Any attempt to block aid, especially to in areas related to issues of public health, such as HIV/Aids treatment and prevention, will harm innocent people.

The world must not be fooled by this argument. The ongoing economic sanctions are hurting the regime more than they hurt the people because the military controls around 70 per cent of the country’s productivity.

The international community must join hands to ensure that Burma pays for its ongoing oppression.