Bangkok: The surprise sacking of Myanmar’s foreign minister and his deputy triggered intense speculation on Monday about the motives behind the latest shakeup in the secretive military-ruled country.

Foreign Minister Win Aung and Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win were “permitted to retire” on Saturday, replaced by military officers with scant diplomatic experience two weeks before Myanmar is due to attend its first Asia-Europe summit.

Vietnam, the summit host, and Thailand called the latest political upheaval in Yangon an internal matter.

With the junta and state media silent, diplomats and analysts were mystified by the reshuffle, which also ousted two other senior ministers.

“We can only speculate it was ASEM that triggered it,” said one Asian diplomat in Hanoi where the Asia-Europe Meeting, or ASEM, is due to be held on Oct. 8 and 9.

Some saw the removal of Win Aung and his deputy, both long serving diplomats, as a hardening of the military’s stance in the face of growing international pressure on human rights.

European and Asian nations had clashed in recent months over Myanmar’s attendance at the summit, with former colonial ruler Britain leading the charge on human rights grounds.

A compromise was struck last week allowing Yangon to attend, but with its representation at a lower level than other states.

However, the European Union threatened tighter economic and visa curbs if Yangon did not free democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and make other rights reforms before the meeting.

“I’m not enthused about it,” one European diplomat said of the changes, noting that some EU members may balk at rubbing shoulders with military men at the summit.

Win Aung, the public face of the junta since he was appointed in 1998 after his predecessor was also sacked, had a reputation for being reasonable, but with no known influence within the junta, diplomats said.

Some analysts say he may have been caught in a power struggle between Senior General Than Shwe, who heads the ruling military council, and Prime Minister Khin Nyunt.

Khin Nyunt was appointed prime minister last year and promptly announced a seven-step roadmap to democracy. But some analysts believe Than Shwe dug in his heels by refusing to free Suu Kyi ahead of talks on a new constitution.

“Khin Nyunt has been clipped and the people around him are being clipped,” said a Singapore-based security analyst.

“Than Shwe is taking control of events and he does not care about the view of Western countries,” said Chayachoke Chulasiriwongs, a Myanmar watcher at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

“This power play has been going, but I’m quite sure that the military, whatever the internal conflict, will not allow military power to decline in favour of civilian rule.”

The new foreign minister, Major General Nyan Win, is one of three deputy chiefs of Armed Forces Training. His new deputy, Colonel Maung Myint, commanded the 77th Light Infantry Division.

Apart from that little is known about them.

The military has ruled the former Burma in various guises since 1962 and Saturday’s cabinet shakeup was the 15th in seven years.

“This is not a surprise. It is common in a country ruled by military dictators. They need to make room for the powerful newcomers,” said a retired Yangon politician.

An Asian diplomat in Hanoi agreed the reshuffle might be related solely to domestic issues and not necessarily meant to send a message to the ASEM meeting.

Still, he said the event must be unsettling for Vietnam, which dispatched a former premier to Yangon last month to calm the dispute about Myanmar’s attendance.

“It’s just when you thought you had taken care of any disruption, here comes another one over the horizon.”

A Vietnamese diplomat in Yangon said the junta had said nothing about its ASEM delegation. “We are hoping to hear something from them these days,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Aung Hla Tun in Yangon, and Christina Pantin in Hanoi).