Burma’s cabinet reshuffle at the weekend leaves Prime Minister Khin Nyunt out in the cold as the leaders pull down the shutters to the outside world

Burma’s hardliners have strengthened their control over the government and signalled a major shift in policy towards the outside world. In a significant shake-up of the cabinet, Burma’s military leaders have axed the foreign minister and deputy foreign minister and replaced them with two little known military officers without any diplomatic experience.

“It is a clear snub to the UN and the West, who have been demanding political changes and the immediate release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi,” said a Western diplomat based in Rangoon.

More importantly, the cabinet changes reflect the intention of the country’s top leader, Senior General Than Shwe, to shun the international community and even rebuff Burma’s Asian allies.

The appointment of two army men to look after foreign affairs, relatively junior officers and with no international experience, underlines the Burmese government’s downgrading of the posts. It also means Burma’s top
leader has opted for isolation rather than engagement with the region and the rest of the world.

“Than Shwe is clearly pulling down the shutters to the outside world,” said a Burmese businessman in Rangoon. “Burma’s leaders have always been quick to impose self-isolation when they do not want to deal with problems.”

The cabinet changes come just ahead of some major international meetings at which Burma’s human rights record and lack of progress towards political reform will certainly come under scrutiny. In the next few weeks, Burma’s foreign minister is scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly in New York, the meeting of Asia and European leaders, or Asem, in Hanoi and the summit of Asean leaders in Vientiane.

“To change the foreign minister at this crucial moment is an insult to the international community and it is a clear message that Burma’s leaders have little or no regard for international opinion,” a senior UN official told the Bangkok Post.

Win Aung, the foreign minister, was replaced less than a week before he was due to go to New York for the start of the UN General Assembly and defend Burma in the face of international criticism. Apart from addressing the UN, the foreign minister was also scheduled to attend an informal
meeting on Burma with UB Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the UN envoy to Burma Razali Ismail.

Last week, Mr Annan released a very critical report on the state of Burma’s national reconciliation process. In it, he condemns the regime for failing to involve the opposition leader and the political parties in the national convention, which is drawing up a new constitution.

Earlier this year, Win Aung consistently told UN representatives and his Asian counterparts that Ms Suu Kyi would be released, the offices of her National League for Democracy party would be allowed to re-open, and the
political parties permitted to function normally before the National Convention convened.

None of this, of course, eventuated, and the United Nations continues to demand an explanation from the foreign minister. The secretary-general’s report also highlights the foreign minister’s unfulfilled promises.

Win Aung has been the face of Burma for the international community. His removal is a clear indication that Gen Than Shwe no longer wants to engage with the international community.

It also casts doubt on the future of UN envoy Razali. It is now seven months since he was last allowed to visit Rangoon. Repeated requests to return have been rebuffed by the regime, according to diplomats in Rangoon.

Mr Razali angered the senior general last time he was in Rangoon by calling for the prime minister to be given a mandate to introduce political reform and by suggesting that there was a rift between the top military leaders, according to a senior Asian diplomat.

The foreign minister’s removal also means that the hardliners, who see no need to introduce political reform nor engage the international community, have strengthened their control within the government.

The pragmatists, including Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who favour involving Ms Suu Kyi in the national reconciliation process and engaging in a dialogue with the international community, are being increasingly sidelined.

Because of its role in bilateral and international affairs, the Foreign Ministry has traditionally come under the country’s military intelligence chiefs. They have generally served abroad as ambassadors or military attaches.

Win Aung had a long career abroad, including as ambassador to London, before taking up his post as foreign minister in 1999. His military background was also in intelligence and he was very close to General Khin Nyunt, the prime minister and intelligence chief.

With Win Aung’s replacement, Gen Than Shwe has wrested the control of foreign affairs away from military intelligence. The new foreign minister, Major-General Nyan Win, is a pure army man, having graduated from the elite military Defence Service Academy. He is a Gen Than Shwe loyalist.

It is also highly significant that the cabinet changes were signed and announced by the State Peace and Development Council’s secretary one, General Soe Win, and not the prime minister. After Gen Khin Nyunt was made prime minister a little over a year ago, he announced the cabinet posts.
So the announcement of these cabinet changes by Gen Soe Win is much more than just a slight to Gen Khin Nyunt.

In a country where rumour and symbolism are everything, this is a clear sign that Gen Khin Nyunt has been marginalised and is relatively powerless.

“My prime minister is in a very dangerous situation,” Win Aung reportedly told his counterparts and Mr Razali at the Asean foreign ministers meeting in Jakarta in late June.

Khin Nyunt is worried about his position, and may even fear for his life, according to a senior Asian diplomat who met Win Aung recently. The foreign minister also hinted that both he and the prime minister may have to leave the country for their own safety in the near future.

The cabinet changes took almost all the regional governments by surprise. The only exception was Beijing. The deputy intelligence chief, Major-General Kyaw Win, visited China a little over a week ago and briefed the Chinese leaders on the new cabinet.

Diplomats in the region are treating the changes with caution. “We should not be too quick to jump to any conclusions,” said a senior diplomat in Southeast Asia who regularly deals with Burma. “The new man is an unknown
quantity but he has a reputation of being a bright, young officer.”

Several foreign ministries in the region spent much of the weekend burning the midnight oil trying to assess what impact these changes will have on Burma’s relations with its neighbours, especially the countries of Asean.

Thailand is particularly worried as it has invested substantial time and effort in trying to coax Burma’s leaders into introducing political reform and releasing Ms Suu Kyi.

Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has cultivated his Burmese counterpart and the two had developed a very warm relationship, often discussing bilateral matters on the telephone.

The Thais are worried about what will happen to the Bangkok process they initiated last year, where Asian and European minister tried to help Burma’s reform process. Win Aung’s removal leaves Thailand marooned.

“It is three years of work virtually down the drain,” a Thai diplomat said.

Since the first meeting in December, Rangoon has cooled on the idea of the Bangkok Process. The second meeting planned for April this year had to be cancelled because of Burma’s reluctance to participate.

Burma’s top leaders are split Gen Khin Nyunt favours working with Thailand, whereas Gen Than Shwe mistrusts Bangkok’s motives and personally dislikes Thailand. With Gen Than Shwe strengthening his control over foreign policy, Win Aung’s replacement as foreign minister may be the final nail in the coffin of the Bangkok Process, according to many Asian diplomats.

In the end, these cabinet changes are probably bad news for most of Burma’s Asian allies. There is going to be increased pressure on them now to convince Rangoon to introduce a measure of political reform, especially at the forthcoming international meetings like Asem in Hanoi and the Asean
summit in Vientiane.

It is quite likely though that Rangoon will leave its chair at Asem empty on the pretext that the new foreign minister is unprepared for the meeting and too busy with other matters.