The timing of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt’s purge may have been a surprise to many. But in recent times there have been clear signs in Rangoon that Burma’s top general Than Shwe was trying to consolidate his power and reduce Khin Nyunt’s influence.

The top three generals in the junta had certainly appeared united. They seemed to believe that if they didn’t stick together, they would all fall. This forced them to try to smooth over their differences on many issues, especially on how to deal with the opposition, international pressure and
economic reform.

Yet, it has been no secret that Than Shwe, junta chairman and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and Deputy Sr-Gen Maung Aye, the army commander, were hardliners, whereas Gen Khin Nyunt, the military intelligence chief, was willing to compromise on certain issues.

Consolidating Power

Than Shwe’s move against Khin Nyunt last week means he now feels strong enough to go it alone. No more balancing act with Khin Nyunt.

In the past, power was shared between Khin Nyunt’s faction and that of the army commander. Although Khin Nyunt had no infantry troops directly under him, some of the regional commanders were close to him.

But in the 2001 reshuffle, Than Shwe strengthened his power over the army and appointed his men to many regional commander posts. For instance, the former Rangoon Division commander who was regarded as close to Khin Nyunt was kicked upstairs and replaced by a new commander who is loyal to Than Shwe.

Since then, Than Shwe seems to have grown tired of having to listen to different opinions. With Khin Nyunt out, he no longer has to argue over how to handle Aung San Suu Kyi and other issues.

Moreover, Than Shwe has become increasingly unhappy with the fact that the international community saw Khin Nyunt as the man they could deal with. Than Shwe, like Burma’s kings in the past, sought to remove his rivals from power and influence.

Tables Turned

This has been his strategy all along. Last year he made Khin Nyunt Prime Minister. Although some analysts interpreted this as a promotion, it was a deliberate move to reduce Khin Nyunt’s influence - at the time Khin Nyunt lost his position as Secretary-1 in the military council, the highest decision-making body. But Than Shwe didn’t yet dare remove him as the military intelligence chief.

Khin Nyunt must have understood what was happening to him as he himself had used the same strategy before. In 1997, he orchestrated the sacking of three powerful former regional commanders - Kyaw Ba, Tun Kyi, and Myint
Aung - by first kicking them upstairs to ministerial posts, where they would have no troops underneath them.   Corruption charges were later used as a pretext to remove them.

Now that Than Shwe has moved against Khin Nyunt, he is also targeting the spymaster’s base - military intelligence. Khin Nyunt loyalists have been sacked and the military intelligence branch is being restructured to bring it fully under the army’s control.

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