October 31: Burma is a bad choice as the first stop for India’s latest diplomatic foray into Southeast Asia

For General Than Shwe, who has emerged as the most powerful man in the Burmese junta as a result of the most recent power grabs, his recent week-long trip to India was an unambiguous success. However, this trip has also cast India in a very negative light regarding its diplomatic approach
towards Asean, for which it will pay a very high price. What is clear is that Burma knows how to play one power against another. Obviously, the junta has realised for quite some time now that Burma has become a little too dependent on China, which has been the rogue state’s single most
important backer since 1988. For 16 years, Beijing has developed full-fledged relations with Rangoon and has utilised the latter’s rich natural resources and strategic location to its advantage.

Since 1995, China’s influence in terms of both security and trade has increased by leaps and bounds. This state of affairs has been no small source of concern among Indian policymakers, who have in recent years started courting the junta leaders, apparently out of a need to offset China’s cosy relations with its hermetic neighbour.

In more ways than one, Than Shwe’s trip was a reward for India’s steadfast and unfailing support of the junta.

Burma knows full well that China is in no position to do anything about its diplomatic overtures towards India.

As a stalwart supporter of Burma, China’s national interests have been too intertwined with those of Rangoon for the Asian giant to feel threatened by the burgeoning ties between Burma and India, the relative latecomer.

China will remain a reliable ally for Burma to fall back on. After all, Asean has not been able to muster enough courage in the past decade to put pressure on China to shift its course regarding its unstinting support for the internationally condemned Burmese junta.

At a time when India’s ascendancy in Asia has gained the world’s largest democracy international recognition as a major political and economicm power in this part of the world, it is unfortunate that Rangoon was the first country to take advantage of New Delhi’s new-found international
influence.

To be fair, it would be hard to single out India for condemnation. New Delhi has maintained that security and trade rank high among its foreign-policy objectives. But its sudden decision to embrace the junta has thrown the long-standing international efforts to bring national
reconciliation and restore democracy to Burma into disarray. This unsubtle move by India may turn out to be counterproductive to India’s long-term relations with the rest of the region.

For one full decade before the end of Cambodia’s civil war, relations between India and Asean were frozen due to New Delhi’s recognition of the Vietnam-backed Heng Samrin regime, installed after Vietnam’s invasion and occupation of the country in 1978.

It took extraordinary efforts by both sides to begin fence-mending and rebuilding mutual trust and understanding, which are prerequisites for further cooperation.

India’s close relationship with Burma is unlikely to last because Burma will not be held captive by its fear of insurgency forever. Let’s not forget that the junta leaders have for years been expertly playing this game with Thailand and China, which also share long borders with Burma.

Moreover, if and when the international community manages to get its act together, India’s position on Rangoon could easily be jeopardised and become untenable. If the political situation inside Burma becomes unstable and degenerates into chaos, India’s new friendship with the junta could
prove to be more of a liability than an asset.

Meanwhile, Burma’s leadership will try its best to maintain the
business-as-usual attitude with countries that have no qualms about being associated with such an atrocious regime. The bogus constitution-drafting process will continue and sham National Conventions will be held.

The outcome , or lack thereof , is the least of the junta’s concern because it believes that members of the international community will be too preoccupied with their own problems to take much notice of what happens in Burma.

For now, this unfortunate turn of events, in which India has played no small part, is a win-win situation for the pariah state. But India’s prestige as the world’s largest democracy and an emerging regional power has been diminished by its diplomatic bungling.