Bangkok: The extension of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s detention allows Myanmar’s military regime to press ahead with its proclaimed democracy programme without having to cope with its chief critic, analysts said Tuesday.

The leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), detained in May 2003, was told at the weekend that her period of house arrest would continue for another 12 months.

Yangon-based analysts said they were not surprised by the move but astonished by its timing — as Southeast Asian leaders at a summit in Laos said they were encouraged by the release of more than 9,000 prison inmates over the last two weeks.

“They don’t stop blowing hot and cold. They do that all the time,” said a diplomat.

A political analyst hinted at the “confusion and disorder” that has reigned in Yangon since the abrupt dismissal for corruption of the premier, General Khin Nyunt, in October.

The observers said they had no doubt the generals wanted to profit from the sidelining of Aung San Suu Kyi by pressing ahead quickly with what they call a roadmap to a “disciplined democracy” presented by Khin Nyunt in August 2003.

“The roadmap was not conceived in the brain of Khin Nyunt. It’s a collective programme that they want to carry out. They have said it time and again,” said the diplomat.

In the eyes of a regime accused by detractors of being impervious to any outside influence, it is of little importance that the NLD has boycotted a national convention which is the first step of the seven-point roadmap. The UN and Western nations have rejected the convention as lacking
legitimacy.

In May the junta convened one thousand delegates for a two-month session of the convention which will resume its work in February after a long pause officially owing to the rainy season.

“The regime wants to try before 2006 to advance as much as possible on the roadmap: the national convention, constitution, then referendum,” said the diplomat.

The roadmap is to lead to “free and fair” elections at an unspecified date.

Yangon is due to take the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2006. In order to be seen as an acceptable head of the organisation by its peers it must improve its democratic record within the next year, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said in Laos on Tuesday.

Before releasing Aung San Suu Kyi, “it is possible they will finish their convention and would have tied up in advance a constitution that would put them in a position of strength and enable them to impose restrictions on certain people,” the analyst said in reference to the NLD leader.

“It all depends on what their basic plan is. It could be to totally ignore her until the end and then prevent her from playing any political role whatsoever in the future” of the country.

The extension of the detention of the Nobel peace prize winner “doesn’t give the impression that they want to integrate everyone into this process. This is not a good sign,” the analyst added.

Debbie Stothard, of pressure group Altsean, said the decision was part of a continuing campaign against the opposition.

“Obviously they think that by isolating Aung San Suu Kyi and wearing down the NLD… they are going to create a situation where there is no NLD left,” she said.

At her lakeside home in Yangon, Aung San Suu Kyi, who embodies the population’s aspirations for freedom, was unsurprised and philosophical about the extension.

“Her morale is very high and health very good,” according to a source close to her party speaking on condition of anonymity.

Suu Kyi has already spent a total of more than nine years in captivity during three periods of house arrest.

She “will not change her policy, and she has always expressed so far her desire to have a dialogue” with the junta, the diplomat said.