Here are some points to ponder concerning the Malaysian initiative to deny the Burmese junta chairmanship of ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2006, and what the international community and ASEAN can do to help future political reform in Burma.

First, the most important idea that Burma is on the verge of becoming of a “failed state” has to be accepted by all parties concerned. They should realize that this is not in the interest of ASEAN or of any other regional, inter-regional or international stakeholder.

Second, the EU and US, with the backing of the UN, should earnestly advocate the idea that Burma is edging towards becoming a failed state, and work closely with ASEAN, China, India and Japan so that real reconciliation and democratisation can take place, according to the terms of the UN resolution. A joint EU-ASEAN task force on Burma, as called for by the Fifth EU-ASEAN Think-Tank Dialogue in Singapore in October 2003, could be created to tackle and resolve the issues surrounding the country.

Third, with the possible endorsement of the UN General Assembly or Security Council, a strategy that combines pressure on the junta and engagement with the people should be devised to facilitate the UN resolution. In addition, pressure and sanctions should be coupled with benchmarks to create incentives for the SPDC (State Peace and Democracy as received, Development Council).

Fourth, if all the possible options are exhausted, a “consensus minus one” approach, mirroring what the Malaysians are now proposing, should be considered.

Last but not least, if somehow the international community were able to correct the balance of power between the SPDC on one side and the NLD(National League for Democracy) and non-Burman ethnic nationalities on the other, “power mediation” or “coercive diplomacy” could be applied to facilitate a long-lasting solution to the problems of Burma.

Sai Wansai, general secretary, Shan Democratic Union