The clamor on the Nobel laureate’s 60th birthday this month to demand an end to her house arrest made little impact in Yangon, which has ignored calls by heads of state, ministers, other Nobel prize winners and human rights activists across the world that she be released.

Analysts say it is likely the regime has already decided she will not be freed before next year.

The generals would first want to re-convene the National Convention drafting a new constitution and have it approved in a referendum, the result of which is a foregone conclusion.

Only then would they feel comfortable to free the popular opposition leader.

Another thorny issue illustrates that the generals listen to no one: the junta’s frustrating delay in finalizing whether it will assume the rotating chairmanship of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The United States and the European Union have threatened to boycott their annual security meetings and other forums with ASEAN if Myanmar heads the regional bloc in 2006, after Malaysia in an alphabetical rotation.

ASEAN itself is divided over the issue. Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos support Myanmar, while countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have made it understood to Yangon they would prefer it relinquished the role.

Within ASEAN, “There is a sense of exasperation,” a Yangon-based analyst said.

But Myanmar does not want to let go and has already begun preparations, extending the city’s airport, resuming downtown construction and beautifying several parks.

“They are under serious pressure. They desperately want it, it is important for their credibility,” he told AFP.

The decision, he said, rests solely with Senior General Than Shwe, the country’s 72-year-old supreme leader.

“He has no inclination to give this up, and it would be a big slap in the face” if Myanmar were pressured out of the role, he said.

“The general listens to no one, no one has any influence over him,” noted another observer. “He is totally insensitive to whatever people suggest to him, and he has a very limited vision of the world and international matters.”

Than Shwe, who has a reputation for reclusiveness and inflexibility, is rankling his neighbors by keeping ASEAN waiting.

Former Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad tried for four years after 1997, the year ASEAN accepted Myanmar with strong support from Malaysia, to engage him in the art of diplomacy, the observer said.

“He has never stopped giving them advice, but to (Than Shwe) it went in one ear and out the other,” he said.

Some heavyweights members within ASEAN, which historically has steered clear of internal meddling, would like to see Myanmar forego the chairmanship, if only to “get rid of the Myanmar problem at least for a certain time,” he added.

Yet Myanmar “has always won out, and has always been able to impose her opinion.”

Yangon’s refusal to budge, the first analyst said, has the military regime seemingly headed towards even greater isolation after the sacking last October of prime minister Khin Nyunt, who was the only top-level leader in favor of some degree of opening to the outside world.

Myanmar, which has been under military rule since 1962, remains unfazed by tightened US and EU sanctions over its dismal human rights record, as well as the regular condemnation by the UN Human Rights Commission or the International Labor Organization.

“Internationally I don’t know who could influence them, except maybe the Chinese, but they have a policy of non-interference in internal affairs,” said the analyst.

The military regime is consequently living in a virtual vacuum, content to engage in perfunctory relations with its neighbors while enjoying warm ties with regional powers China and India, each of which court Yangon for geo-political advantage.

“They feel they have nothing to fear because they have friends protecting them at the (UN) Security Council,” said one Western diplomat, referring to permanent member China.

“The rest doesn’t interest them much.”