November 27, 2005

Suspects arrested with raw opium are seen here at a police station in Laiza, the headquarters of the Kachin Independence Organisation, in May this year.

Surveys and reports published by concerned governments and the United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have concluded that the production of illicit opium in Bur ma has steadily declined for the past five years.

But what should be good news is mired in controversy because although opium production may be falling, seizures of its derivative, heroin, have been climbing sharply. And even one of the region’s most important and most optimistic fighters against drugs warns that the drug mafias are finding other ways to make their black profits.

According to statistics published by the government of Burma, authorities seized 158.9kg of heroin in 2000, 96.7kg in 2001, 333.8kg in 2002, 568.08kg in 2003 and 973.5kg in 2004. The total amount for 2005, including the 496kg seized so far, should be high as well.

According to the Myanmar Opium Survey 2004, published by the UNODC, the poppy planting area in Burma declined by 29% from 2003, with a fall of 28% for cultivation in the Shan State, where 90% of nationwide planting took place.

The 2005 survey released early this month showed a further decline by 26% in poppy growing i n Burma compared with the same period in 2004, with the figure down 25% in the Shan State, which is the source of 94% of Burmese opium.

These are quite interesting figures that contrast with an “impressive” 592kg seizure of heroin in the Mon State on July 9, 2004, described by Burmese authorities as the biggest-ever capture in the country’s history. This was almost matched by a 496kg seizure in the eastern Shan State on Sept 10, 2005.

A Thai anti-narcotics officer said it was hard to estimate the amount of heroin that is actually smuggled out of Burma each year, but that the volume of heroin that reached markets abroad was certainly higher than what the Burmese manage to seize annually.

Heroin is, however, only part of an ugly story. The ever-increasing production of synthetic drugs or amphetamine-type stimulants (AT S) in Burma worries many Asian anti-drug forces, especially those in Thailand. Millions of so-called yaa baa (crazy drug) pills are smuggled across the border every year.

Thailand’s concern is shared by Jean-Luc Lemahieu, who is the UNODC representative in Burma.

“As for the ATS, I am not very optimistic. The Wa are getting ‘clean’ of opium but not of synthetic drugs. The ATS is the alternative for criminals but not for farmers. The problem will continue if we can’t [also] address the issue of curbing the demand and production of ATS,” he told Perspective. (See full interview in the sidebar.)

Not everyone has access to the raw intelligence gathered by Mr Lemahieu’s team, so ordinary people who rely on mass media will be confused when they hear that opium production is going down, then the next day they hear of another gigantic heroin bust.

“The obvious answer from the defending side would be the ‘logical’ one, that the seizures are big because the polic e are doing a better job,” said Shan-born Khuensai Jaiyen, who is director of the Shan Herald Agency for News and author of a book titled Show Business – Rangoon’s ‘War on Drugs’ in Shan State, which is an investigative report of the ongoing drug issues in the state.

“People from every walk of life have the right to ask questions about the status of narcotic business in Burma because many of them, and governments around the world, have to bear the consequences,” said Mr Khuensai, who followed up with some questions of his own:

“Is it true that the cultivation of opium will stop in the Wa State? What is the situation in Kachin, Chin and Kayah states and in the Sagaing Division? What is the extent of opium production in [ethnic minority] Pa-O, Palaung, Lahu areas and other places inside the Shan State? Has the planting stopped in the Kokang and Mongla special regions? Why is the production of synthetic drugs going up? And how will the former opium farmers survive?”

PROGRESS COULD BE UNDONE

This concern was also expressed by the executive director of the UNODC, Antonio Mario Costa, who in a statement issued this month welcomed the decline in opium cultivation but warned that the rapid progress made in eradicating poppy fields seen in the past decade could be undone if the growing problem of poverty and under-nourishment among farmers is not addressed. “Some of the poorest are being affected by loss of income from drugs as cultivation declines,” he said.

These remarks can be seen as “warning bells” from the UNODC chief who – like most experts – doesn’t expect the impressive looking ‘decline’ in opium cultivation to be something that will continue indefinitely, said Mr Khuensai.

He and some other experts doubt whether the statistics published in the Myanmar Opium Survey 2005, accompanied by colourful charts and tables, are accurate – to put it mildly – as it originates in investigations conduc ted by the government-controlled Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control. The agency’s name and emblem appear on the cover of the Myanmar Opium Survey 2005 close to those of the UNODC.

This raises many questions over the credibility of the findings, as all governments want to protect their interests and report only good news. “The report is too good to be true,” Mr Khuensai said.

The Thai anti-narcotics officer also raised some doubts: “Why are certain Wa individuals of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) always named as the main culprits while other suspects are omitted? And what is the role of rebel groups such as the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) in the drug business?” he asked.

About this sensitive subject, the US Department of State (USDS) wrote in its report of March, 2005: “A growing amount of methamphetamine is reportedly produced in labs co-located with heroin refineries in areas controlled by the UWSA, the ethnic Chinese Kokang and the SSA-S. Heroin and methamphetamines produced by these groups are trafficked overland.”

The SSA-S commander Colonel Yawd Serk always vehemently denies any involvement in drug-related business and has stressed in a number of interviews and statements that his group is opposed to drugs and, in fact, fights against them on all fronts.

The USDS said in the same report: “Burma is the world’s second largest producer of illicit opium, but produces only a small fraction of the opium now produced in Afghanistan.” But it also referred to Burma as “a primary source of ATS produced in Asia.”

CULTIVATION ‘IN FULL SWING’

While the Wa leadership claims that there has been no opium poppy planting for the 2005-2006 season, there have been reports that poppy cultivation is still in full swing near to the Thai border, especially in Mongton township.

Rumours of a renewed increase in the cultivation of opium in the Kachin State were recognised and carefully noted by the UN ODC in the Myanmar Opium Survey 2005.

“A rapid assessment conducted in a randomly selected area in Kachin State showed that opium poppy cultivation in this state remains a concern,” the report says. One drug expert said that as the Wa leadership pressured their farmers to give up opium cultivation, the gangs were transferring to other places, with the Kachin State a principal target. He also predicted that the cultivation would increase.

These concerns aren’t shared by Colonel James Lum Dau, Deputy Chief of Foreign Affairs of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), who made a ceasefire with the Burmese government in 1994.

Under the agreement, the KIO administrates approximately 30% of the Kachin State.

“The area where the opium is grown now is only a fraction of what it was not so long ago,” claimed the colonel.

“The KIO military and police have been suppressing the drug trade vigorously for many years and continue to do so. We are destroying opium farms. We are arresting drug dealers and putting them in the jail and we are apprehending addicts and sending them for rehabilitation. We are now short of medicine that can stop the habit.”

He also disclosed that the KIO was cooperating with Burma’s governing State Peace and Development Council in drug suppression in a few places and working by itself in others.

According to Col James, the best way to eliminate the drug problem – among many other measures – is to have law and order in the country. This, he believes, will be achieved by the new constitution currently being drafted by the government. And secondly, by having new roads and infrastructure, so farmers can easily transport their legitimate products to markets to sell.

Steve Vickers, who is the president and CEO of International Risk and a former head of the Royal Hong Kong Police’s Criminal Intelligence Bureau said:

“There is no doubt that commendable efforts have been made by the UNODC and by other international organisations and law enforcement bodies; indeed these organisations have had some measure of success – this frequently under difficult circumstances. However, the hard fact remains that Burma is a growing not declining problem as it relates to the narcotics trade.

“The real danger of overly optimistic assessments as to progress (if indeed they are overly optimistic), is that foreign policy decisions, currently being made by the US and the other major powers as to the future of Burma, will not adequately factor in the spectre of the country evolving further into a fully fledged narco-state, one very similar to that which prevailed under the Taliban in Afghanistan but without the same level of control.

“Future Burmese regimes may well buckle, withdraw further, or deflate to some extent, under foreign pressure, and may ultimately degenerate or evolve into significantly worse yet weaker forms than the current, unsavoury regime.

“Decision s as to the future must take into consideration the danger of a completely fragmented Burma – one which no party, including the National League for Democracy, could hold together.

“A cold and impartial evaluation of the actual narcotics situation is therefore required – one completely devoid of all internal organisational politics – if wider strategic mistakes are to be avoided.”