As expected, Burma’s military leaders adjourned the latest round of constitutional talks at the National Convention last week. The move has prompted observers in Rangoon to suggest that Senior-Gen Than Shwe pulled the plug.

An informed source in Rangoon said the most likely reason for this delay in proceedings is the “old man” is not prepared to see the convention through to a formal conclusion.

Burma has conducted the National Convention since 1993, in an on-again-off-again fashion that moves at a snail’s pace. Some regional governments were hopeful that this year would be different after Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win told a news conference that 2006 would be a critical year for the constitution-drafting National Convention, a chief element in the country’s professed road map to democracy.

Rangoon-based political observers suggest that Gen Than Shwe’s focus is not on the convention, but rather on military affairs and the relocation of government ministries to Pyinmana in central Burma, the country’s new administrative city. Government engineers and private contractors are reportedly under pressure to finish work on a military parade ground there before the next Armed Forces Day in late March. The order to complete the parade ground was believed to have come from Gen Than Shwe. Armed Forces Days have traditionally been marked by a grand military parade in Rangoon attended by the ruling junta.

This latest postponement of the National Convention has caused disappointment among ethnic delegates at the convention, but such feelings are not unfamiliar.

The message from Gen Than Shwe is clear. Constitutional talks will drag on well into 2007. No one knows when or if they will ever formally conclude. And the road leading to democracy gets longer and more treacherous.

Gen Than Shwe, head of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is known to be the chief political strategist among Burma’s top military leaders. Dubbed the “secret mover”, he rarely reveals his next plans to subordinates, let alone to the nation. Some analysts in Rangoon have suggested that last week’s recess might have something to do with the ongoing reshuffle of military commanders, which has led to speculation of a growing power struggle at the highest levels of the country’s armed forces.

It has long been rumoured that Gen Than Shwe wants to oversee the completion of the administrative city in Pyinmana and the relocation of the junta’s War Office, and is at loggerheads with the junta number two, Deputy Senior-Gen Maung Aye, who is also vice-chairman of the SPDC, deputy commander of Defence Services and army commander.

Some observers believe Gen Maung Aye will be sent to Pyinmana, while Gen Than Shwe and his faithful officers remain in Rangoon. This would allow Gen Maung Aye to guide the day-to-day affairs of the War Office, but under the watchful eyes of a staff loyal to Than Shwe.

Sources say that while Gen Maung Aye has no political ambitions and thus poses no threat, Gen Than Shwe wants to keep him contained.

A source close to the Burmese army said that Gen Than Shwe doesn’t want Gen Maung Aye to come and knock on his door. However, Gen Maung Aye will not make a move against Gen Than Shwe unless he is approached by some senior army leaders. Some military watchers in Rangoon suggest that although there is deep-seated mistrust between the two powerful military men, they are working together fairly normally at the moment.

Rumours persist that Gen Than Shwe, 75, will retire soon. But he has shown no sign of slowing down, and so will need to tend carefully to his future and that of his family. Before he lets go of the reins of power, he wants to install a trustworthy replacement to lead the country’s armed forces. Junta number three, Gen Shwe Mann, is considered a prime contender. With Gen Maung Aye lodged firmly between the two, the country – and, indee d, the world – must await Gen Than Shwe’s next grand move.

Aside from Gen Shwe Mann, last week saw Rangoon regional commander Lt-Gen Myint Swe, Gen Than Shwe’s protege, promoted as head of the Bureau of Special Operations and will oversee the BSO Rangoon division.

Lt-Gen Myint Swe, who is also chief of military affairs security, would become a member of the SPDC. Observers said that the latest reshuffle will further sideline Gen Maung Aye.

In addition to a looming power struggle, Gen Than Shwe faces another serious issue. Several mid-ranking military officers have expressed increasing dissatisfaction with delays in the completion of the National Convention and slow pace of political transition and economic difficulties.

For now, though, the “old man” still calls the shots, and will make certain his next steps are safe. This can only mean any future political transition will be further stalled, and Burma could be deadlocked for years to come.