Burma’s military government claimed last week that the country’s economy has grown 12.2 percent in 2005, according to a local media report.

“In 2004, the Burmese economic expanded 12 percent, but in 2005 it has expanded to 12.2 percent,” Burma’s Minister of National Planning and Economic Development Soe Tha was quoted as saying by the semi-official newspaper The Myanmar Times.

The government figure is higher than that of China, whose economy grew by some 8.5 percent-the highest growth rate according to the Asia Development Bank’s report “Asian Development Outlook 2005.”

In April 2005, ADB said that actual growth rates could be much lower than predicted because of high inflation, lagging income levels and declines in power consumption and fertilizer us in the agricultural sector-the country’s main economic motor.

Soe Tha further stated that last year’s export trade policies secured for Burma a record trade surplus of more than US $1 billion. According to his figures, the country exported $2.77 billion in goods in 2005, while the value of imported goods stood at $1.6 billion.

Sein Htay, a Burmese economic analyst, suggested that the high government figures could be inflated because of two methods of calculating growth. One uses the “constant price” of goods and services, while the other uses the “current price.” The latter is the more accurate method, as it reflects the daily reality of prevailing economic conditions.

“The government figure is high because they calculate at constant price instead of current or market price,” said Sein Htay.

According to ADB, a “dual exchange rate system,” like the one employed in Burma, can produce a wide gap between official prices and black market prices. Currently, the official exchange rate in Burma is 6 kyat to the US dollar. Black market rates are considerably higher, at 1,163 kyat to the US dollar.

Sein Htay suggested that the military government refuses to acknowledge the reality of economic development in Burma, and so it remains difficult for economists to accurately assess growth from year to year.

“It is impossible to know the actual figures,” he said. “They [the government] only want to show how much development has improved under their control.”

Independent economic analysts in Rangoon suggest that the actual growth rate for 2005 is closer to 1.5 percent.