April 24, From time to time allegations appear that the military rulers in Rangoon have embarked on a nuclear weapons programme, but thus far none have been substantiated, writes

Burma has many strikes against it in the eyes of the international community, ranging from human rights abuses and the suppression of democracy to drug trafficking. Speculation that the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is maintaining nuclear research facilities have been in circulation for quite some time, and in the past the SPDC has openly stated its intentions to develop nuclear power. There have also been rumours that Burma is actively pursing a nuclear weapons programme, which obviously would be of great regional and global concern. Thus far, however, there is no evidence of the existence of any nuclear facilities in Burma other than maps drawn by people who claim to have inside information.

Only last week a Burmese opposition media organisation, the Democratic Voice of Burma, carried a story saying that “residents of Lunkyaw and Taungdaw villages, Mandalay Division’s Kyaukse Township in central Burma, have been living in fear due to mysterious explosions”. The article went on to say that the villagers had presumed the cause to be “weapons tests carried out by the ‘nuclear’ battalion’ run by the SPDC”. The villagers reported that there have been almost nightly explosions and rising flames since the beginning of April. When they inquired about the disturbances, “they were told by local authorities to shut up and stay put if they don’t want their villages to be relocated”.

The DVB story goes on to say that the “nuclear battalion” is based in Taungdaw and made up of artillery and communication units and that the testing facility was built into the nearby Setkhya Mountains in 2000 and includes a complex tunnel system. The operation “is said to be supervised by the SPDC army officers who were trained in Russia, according to sources close to the military,” the article concludes.

There have also been some very recent allegations baffling experts and analysts, as well as some exiles, that the military regime in Burma “seeks to acquire a nuclear reactor in order to build an atomic weapon”.

The allegations were made by a woman claiming to have been a civilian employee of the Ministry of Defence in Rangoon from 1999 until December 2004. She apparently defected to Thailand not long ago and has been “hiding” with her Burmese husband in the Don Muang area of Bangkok. The woman requested anonymity because she fears being kidnapped by the agents of theSPDC as she is, in her own words, a “very important defector”. She produced a name card identifying herself as a member of the Overseas National Students’ Organisation of Burma. The card contains her contact number and e-mail address and also a colour photo of herself.

She claimed that the position she held as a purchasing controller in the Ministry of Defence for several years made her privy to many “secrets” regarding the purchase of weapons and military equipment.

“Information on the SPDC’s nuclear ambitions should be revealed to the world, so that the United States will invade the country as it has done in Iraq,” she said. The woman and her husband would like to migrate to the United States because they believe it is too dangerous for them to live in Thailand.

“We could be arrested by the Thai police because our visa expired several months ago,” she added.

The defector said that the SPDC has been sending both military officers and civilians to North Korea and Russia since 2000 to be trained in nuclear-technology systems. Four officials were also dispatched to Japan in 2001 to study the effects of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

She said that the SPDC nuclear weapons programme is codenamed the “Ayelar Project” as it is located in the Ayelar area, not far from the new capital city of Pyinmana.

“The facility is disguised as a flour mill but they are actually researching and developing atomic weapons and learning how to enrich uranium. The equipment has been smuggled from many countries, including India and Singapore,” she claimed.

During a two-hour interview she never once suggested that the alleged nuclear programme might be intended for peaceful purposes. She said that two Pakistani scientists arrived in Burma in December 2000 to help with the efforts to produce a nuclear bomb.

In fact, Indian newspapers reported in 2001 that two Pakistani nuclear scientists alleged to have links with Osama bin Laden – Dr Suleiman Asad and Dr Mohammad Ali Mukhtar – were granted political asylum in Burma. But reports of their presence in Burma were refuted by the SPDC.

It is important to keep in mind that to date the claims of a Burmese nuclear programme have come mostly from dissidents who may be trying to spur the international community toward direct action against the military rulers.

Said one western analyst: “Only the top SPDC officials can fill the gaps between the allegations and the facts, and they enjoy keeping everyone in suspense.” He added that western intelligence organisations have failed to penetrate Burma’s secretive hierarchy, noting the “fiasco” of the inability to detect a whole new Burmese capital under construction for several years.

‘UNNECESSARY

PROLIFERATION RISK’ In January 2002 then SPDC Foreign Minister U Win Aung told the BBC that Burma was committed to developing a nuclear research facility for medical purposes and possibly to generate nuclear power.

A few days later, in the first official statement on the issue, the Burmese military government confirmed through Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win that it planned to build a nuclear reactor with help from Russia which would be used for peaceful purposes. The reactor which was being negotiated with the Russians was a 10MW pool-type nuclear research reactor.

Nuclear research reactors are primarily used as a source of neutrons for a variety of purposes, including scientific research and industrial development. The reactors are also used to create radioisotopes for medical research applications.

Most Asian countries have at least one research reactor – only Burma, Laos and Cambodia do not.

As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Burma is banned from developing nuclear weapons, but it can operate a reactor for peaceful purposes under safeguards laid down by the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA).

Historically Burma’s official position has consistently been opposition to the use of nuclear weapons. It was among the first countries to become a State Party to the 1963 Partial Ban Treaty. In 1995 Burma entered into a safeguards agreement with the IAEA, as required under the NPT, and the same year signed the Treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone.

Yet international suspicion of Burma is reflected in the nervous reactions to reports of its alleged nuclear ambitions. In February 2002, a spokesman for the US State Department told Agence France-Presse: “We expect the government of Burma to live up to its obligations and to not pursue production of weapons-grade fissile materials.”

In 2003, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar called Burma’s attempt to acquire a nuclear reactor “troubling”. He argued that even a civilian reactor poses “an unnecessary proliferation risk” because terrorists could steal nuclear material from it.”
It was revealed in late 2003 that the Russian deal had been shelved because the SPDC allegedly couldn’t reach a final agreement with Moscow concerning payment. The Russians rejected the deal because the SPDC wasn’t in a position to pay for the reactor. Rangoon wanted to make a 10 percent advance payment but the Russians wanted 25 percent.

It was reported in November 2005, however, that Russia has resumed talks on helping Burma to build a nuclear research facility reactor. According to Mizzima News Group, the spokesman for the Russian’s atomic energy ministry, or Minatom, said that final discussions were being held on the price and financing of the nuclear research facility. “The government of Myanmar has enough money, I think, so we will continue the negotiations.”

A source said that the construction of the US $150-million facility would be handled by the Burmese authorities, while the fuel and expertise for the project would come from Moscow.

“The SPDC has been very effective in hiding things,” pointed out a foreign expert on Burma. He added: “They could hide from everyone a plan to move their capital from Rangoon to Pyinmana until the day they have chose to make an official announcement which took everyone by surprise. So why couldn’t they hide their nuclear plans, which might include building nuclear weapons?”

DISSIDENT DUPLICITY

Certain dissidents have been quick to fan suspicions that Rangoon may be working on a weapons programme. Reports published by several dissident organisations often give minute details on the SPDC’s activities, for example, how many chickens, pigs or sacks of rice were stolen by the SPDC troops from villagers living in a certain area of the countryside. However, such groups have drawn a total blank when it comes to unearthing plans for a nuclear weapons programme, although they also failed to spot the construction of Pyinmana.

One analyst urged caution in regard to any dissident claims concerning nuclear weapons. “Why would one of the poorest and the least developed countries in the world embark on a nuclear bomb project?” he asked.

“Iraqi dissidents gave the United States fabricated intelligence concerning their country’s alleged weapons of mass destruction and nuclear capabilities which led to the invasion by the Americans. And some Burmese dissidents are trying to do the same, hoping that this would be the case and they would be subsequently appointed to high positions in a future administration,” said the expert. “An SPDC nuclear programme, especially one which could build a weapon, is merely the wishful thinking of a few exiles and their sponsors. They are looking for an opportunity to exploit the issue for their own benefit,” he added.
Most foreign diplomats familiar with Burmese military affairs agree that it is extremely unlikely that Burma would attempt to develop nuclear weapons because just making the preparations would mean destruction of the regime. They couldn’t hide the facilities or the equipment, which would all have to be imported.

Moreover, the SPDC could hardly afford to fund a nuclear reactor, let alone make nuclear weapons – something even the most hardcore dissidents privately concede, although one admitted to saying the exact opposite to foreign backers just to “keep them on a string”.
Responsible opposition figures are not interested in spreading falsehoods which could come back to haunt them. A leading exile with many contacts inside Burma dismissed the defector’s claim of the SPDC’s ambitions to build a nuclear bomb because if would cause them unending troubles.

During a private conversation the exile, who was elected as a Member of Parliament in the 1990 general election, said that “the SPDC wants to use nuclear energy to generate electricity, as well as for medical purposes and research, but absolutely not to construct an atomic bomb.
“They are not so stupid as to get into this – it would ultimately destroy them. They really want to improve the supply of electricity in the country and a nuclear power-station would improve it. It is well-known that power-shortages exist everywhere in Burma, including in Rangoon,” the MP said, adding that hydro-electric power plants could not satisfy the increasing demand for electricity.

As indicated by a limited survey conducted inside Burma, the people also don’t believe the government would be so stupid as to build nuclear weapons, but in general they agree with the idea of generating electricity through nuclear power.

Burma has said it not only wants make the country energy-sufficient but wants to export electricity to neighboring countries such as Thailand. The supply of electricity inside Burma has been improving steadily of late, with power outages decreasing.

This trend should continue as Burma expands its electricity-generating capabilities by building more power stations. A source in Pyinmana said that the city now has electricity 24-hours a day, contributed by the recently constructed 280-megawatt Paunglaung hydro-electric underground power station located near Pyinmana Township, in Mandalay Division.

In order to improve the present power supply situation and to meet the future power demand, the Burma Ministry of Electric Power has laid down both 5-year short term and 30-year plans. The latter is composed of six five-year plans.

Within the time-frame of the first 5-year plan from 2001 to 2006, the Ministry of Electric Power had planned to develop 14 hydropower projects and 1 coal-fired thermal power station. Some power stations are already operational and some are being built, including the 780-megawatt Yeywa plant located near Kyaukse Township in Mandalay Division which is scheduled for completion this year.

By using nuclear power to generate electricity Burma would improve even further their grid. An expert on energy issues said that “nuclear power also generates a large amount of low cost electricity without omitting air pollution or greenhouse gases. France, for example, has built 58 nuclear power plants and now gets more than 78 percent of its electricity from nuclear power.”

According to a western diplomat based in Bangkok, “It is nonsense to say that Burma plans to purchase nuclear technology from Russia or North Korea in order to build a weapon.

“What some Burmese dissidents are attempting to do is what their Iraqi counterparts did before them- the result was the invasion of Iraq, the consequences of which are well known to everyone.”

One dissident agreed, saying that some Burmese exiles are attempting to duplicate the Iraq fiasco, when raqi dissidents fed the United States misinformation about weapons of mass destruction and the nuclear capabilities of Saddam Hussein. He said that any invasion of Burma by the US would be a disaster for the country. “What we need from the Americans is financial and other assistance. We will do the rest.”

IAEA GIVES BURMA POOR MARKS

An International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) inspection team reported in 2001 that it had serious doubts about Burma’s ability to use nuclear energy safely. The world’s premier organisation for promoting the safe and peaceful use of nuclear energy has repeatedly said that Burma would have to upgrade its regulatory framework for nuclear power considerably if it is not to become a country of concern.

The United States, Europe and China have in the past said Burma is not following the agency’s advice on how to prepare for nuclear energy. The IAEA inspection found that safety standards were well below the agency’s minimum requirements.

Independent experts point out that Russia, the likely supplier of Burma’s nuclear technology, has a poor safety record, with several reactor accidents.

Even if Burma were to develop nuclear power, at the present time it is inconceivable that the IAEA would allow it to enrich its own uranium. There is always a chance that it would undertake such a project on its own, as Iran is apparently doing. In such a case however it would take many years to produce enough irradiated fuel for reprocessing into weapons-grade plutonium for Burma to make its own nuclear weapons or to become a supplier of weapons-grade plutonium to other countries or groups.