Yangon: Aung San Suu Kyi’s surprise meeting with a UN envoy has lifted hopes among her supporters that Myanmar’s military rulers may soon release her from house arrest, but analysts are far more cautious.

The junta’s latest order confining the Nobel peace laureate and democracy icon to her home expires Saturday, after an unusually-short extension of six months in November.

Hopes within her National League for Democracy were boosted after the envoy, UN Under Secretary General Ibrahim Gambari, told reporters after returning to New York that recent remarks by Myanmar’s police chief “could also be a way to prepare the ground” for her release.

“I can’t say whether it will be done, but I certainly hope so,” he added.

Myanmar’s police chief Khin Yi had said earlier in the week that he did not believe Aung San Suu Kyi’s release would spark riots or rallies in the street.

That has lifted hopes within her party that the nation’s military rulers have softened their stance, especially as the United States has stepped up pressure on the regime to free her.

Analysts and diplomats warned that her release remained a distant possibility, while admitting that the secretive regime often makes sudden and unpredictable decisions.

The 60-year-old has spent more than 10 of the last 17 years locked away. Her most recent detention began three years ago, after a brutal attack on her convoy in northern Myanmar.

The most recent order for her house arrest expires Saturday, a day that coincidentally marks the 16th anniversary of her party’s landslide victory in elections that the junta has never recognized.

“We are waiting for May 27. We are hoping for the best and we want to see it,” said party spokesman Lwin, who uses only one name, after also meeting with Gambari.

The meeting between Aung San Suu Kyi and Gambari was the first contact she was allowed with anyone other than her maid or her doctor in more than two years.

Lwin said the NLD viewed the meeting as a sign that the military was willing to loosen its restrictions on her.

“We assume that the tension with the authorities has relaxed. It’s a positive sign,” Lwin said.

Analysts and diplomats are much more cautious.

“The signs are not really good. Before that visit, the NLD was under so much pressure,” Thailand-based analyst Win Min said.

During the last month, Myanmar’s generals had ratcheted up the pressure on the NLD, intimidating many members into leaving the party while threatening to outlaw the party over alleged ties to “terrorists”.

Win Min also noted that the meeting with Gambari was arranged at the last minute and held in secret at a military facility. The official media have made no mention of the meeting.

“All of this means that they still want to control her very much,” he said.

One senior western diplomat in Yangon, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while he doubted she would be freed, the junta might agree to grant her more liberties — such as permission to travel within the city.

“You never know. Maybe she will be allowed to stay within Yangon,” he told AFP.

The United States has led the international pressure on the regime to release her, with the State Department on Monday again demanding her freedom.

Such pressure in the past has had little effect on the junta supremo, Senior General Than Shwe, who is likely to make the final decision on her fate.

His deputy, Vice Senior General Maung Aye, is believed to be more receptive to making at least some gesture to the international community, after he travelled this year to Russia and China — which have so far blocked major moves against Myanmar at the UN Security Council.

A home affairs official said that no order has been issued yet about Aung San Suu Kyi, but analysts said the junta usually makes such decisions at the last minute.

“The authorities were thinking until the last minute about whether to allow Gambari to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi,” said Win Naing, an independent politician in Yangon.

“So we need to wait until the last minute to see if Daw Suu will be released,” he said.