Burma’s ethnic Karen had high hopes in 2004 that a gentleman’s ceasefire agreement with the country’s military regime would bring peace, but two years on those hopes have been dashed.

Karen National Union leader Gen Bo Mya and a 20-member delegation brokered an informal ceasefire agreement with then prime minister Khin Nyunt in January 2004.

News of the agreement drew a mixed reaction. Some Karen were optimistic, while others worried that the ruling State Peace and Development Council could never be trusted.

The naysayers were right. While full-scale operations by the Burmese army in Karen State declined, smaller engagements never ceased. Since the agreement in January 2004, the Karen National Liberation Army has clashed with government troops more than an estimated 1,000 times, according to a senior Karen leader who asked not to be named.

As more than 16,000 villagers from northern and eastern Karen State have been displaced this year by orchestrated attacks on civilians by SPDC troops-including indiscriminate killings and the burning of villages and food stores-any semblance of a ceasefire has vanished.

Some 2,000 displaced villagers have gained admittance to Mae Ra Moo refugee camp in Thailand’s Mae Hong Son province, while hundreds more stream towards a makeshift camp on the Burma side of the Saleween River, awaiting permission to enter Thailand.

Meanwhile, the KNU is struggling to provide security for the increasingly vulnerable waves of refugees, while also trying to honor the spirit of the ceasefire agreement.

“We are still looking at the situation,” said Mahn Sha, general secretary of the KNU. “We cannot say that the ceasefire between the SPDC and [the KNU] is totally broken.”

He added, however, that the Karen army was not prepared to stand by while Burmese soldiers attacked and burned Karen villages. “If the Burmese army attacks our villages, we’re prepared to fight to protect our people and have already started an offensive in 7th Brigade [close to the Thai Burma border].”

As the dire conditions in Karen State deteriorate further, it remains to be seen how a two-year-old gentleman’s agreement could be salvaged, and whether it would have any real impact.