The Burmese military regime has wrapped up its belated quarterly meeting, held for the first time in the country’s new administrative city, Naypyidaw.

Although some analysts came up with endless speculation about the possibility of  junta boss Than Shwe removing his number two, Maung Aye, in an apparent power struggle between the two top leaders the deputy senior general kept his post. He remains firmly in the position of army commander-in-chief and is still vice-chairman of the State Peace and Development Council.

To the surprise of  those observers who predicted Maung Aye would be sidelined, he presided over a bridge-opening ceremony south of Rangoon in late May, and a few days later he visited a trade show, the Jade, Gems and Pearl Special Sales 2006, in Rangoon. Did those two public appearances mean anything? Perhaps, borrowing from Mark Twain, Maung Aye was saying: “The report of my death has been grossly exaggerated,”

Observers thought the visits were unusual. They remarked on the absence from the public scene lately of Than Shwe, who last appeared with visiting UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari at Naypyidaw.

Burmese military observers thought Than Shwe and Maung Aye had reached a compromise. But some Burmese scholars who closely monitor the inner circle of the secretive military junta said Than Shwe had agreed that Maung Aye should take over more authority while he himself remained behind the scenes.

In a surprise move, Than Shwe and Maung Aye saw eye-to-eye in promoting Brig-Gen Myint Hlaing, commander of Northeast Command, to head the country’s air defense department. Defense analysts said that the sudden promotion of Myint Hlaing to number four man in the armed forces had created resentment within the armed forces.

Myint Hlaing is a Maung Aye protégé who instigated the downfall of former prime minister and military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt in 2004. Defense sources said that Than Shwe also favored Myint Hlaing’s promotion.

Than Shwe is believed to prefer his number three man, Gen Shwe Mann, a Buddhist Karen, to lead the armed forces, but the battle-hardened Maung Aye has succeeded in maintaining good relations with the junta chief’s reputed chosen heir.

Shwe Mann, who won the army’s prestigious Thura title during his battle against Karen insurgents in the early 1990s, was a junior officer in 1988, when Maung Aye was a powerful commander in Shan State. Shwe Mann reportedly maintains good communications with two of his bosses, Than Shwe and Maung Aye. That may mean an end to the speculation for now.