June 20, Rangoon is now Beijing’s best buddy in Southeast Asia and China’s influence is visible everywhere across Burma

Burma has now become China’s most important ally in Asia. China’s support for the Burmese junta has recently strengthened immeasurably, as the Chinese leaders have made Rangoon the cornerstone of their revised strategy towards Southeast Asia in the face of what it fears is the growing and unwanted influence of the United States in the region. Since the beginning of the year there has been a flurry of diplomatic and business visits between the two capitals, with the aim of boosting economic, trade and technology ties. This included a secret mission by the Burmese army chief, General Thura Shwe Mann, to Beijing in May.

But their burgeoning relationship is not without some irritation, as Beijing realises its close relationship with its unpopular Asian ally is likely to increase pressure on them from Burmese political activists and the international community.

In early June, Burma’s acting prime minister Thein Sein visited Beijing where he met senior Chinese legislators from the National Peoples’ Congress and discussed a wide range of issues including political and economic matters. Almost immediately the Burmese government hosted a large delegation from Beijing, from the China-Asean Association which included government officials, legislators and businessmen. China is anxious to explore cooperation with Burma in almost all economic and business areas. During the visit of provisional Chinese officials three months ago, some 600 businessmen from both countries discussed mutual cooperation covering timber, bamboo and furniture, rubber, hydroelectric projects, construction, mining, transportation, tea products, beverages, sugar mills, textiles, fertiliser and chemicals, electric and electronic products, livestock and fisheries, machine parts and farm equipment.

Some time ago China decided that Burma was crucial to its economic development, especially for the more backward southern regions of the country which have lagged behind the economic development along China’s eastern coast. But until recently, China’s leaders have feared that Burma’s military junta lacked real legitimacy and could collapse overnight, leaving Beijing’s military and economic investment in the regime worthless. There is no doubt that China’s greatest fear remains Burma’s stability. More than a million Chinese farmers, workers and businessmen have crossed into Burma in the last 10 years and are working and living there. The Chinese authorities fear that any upheaval in Burma would result in a mass exodus of Chinese back across the border, creating increased industrial and social unrest in their border regions.

In the past few years Chinese businessmen and provincial government enterprises have boosted their investment in Burma: Lashio, Mandalay and Muse are virtually Chinese cities now. Even in Rangoon, the Chinese are involved in building a special tax-free export zone around the port.

China already has major oil and gas concessions in western Burma, and is planning overland pipelines to bring it to southern China.

Burma is an important strategic transit point for goods produced in southern China. They want to transport these by road to the Rangoon port for shipment to India, the Middle East and eventually Europe. Repair work is under way on Burma’s antiquated internal road system that links southern China, through Mandalay to Rangoon.

Now there are fresh plans to rebuild the old British road through northern Burma that would connect southern China with northeast India. The Chinese have agreed to finance the construction of this highway using 40,000 Chinese construction workers. Some 20,000 would remain after the work was completed to do maintenance work on the road.

”When this happens the northern region of Burma will be swamped by Chinese government officials, workers, lorry drivers and businessmen _ it will no longer be Burma,” according to a senior Western diplomat-based in Bangkok who has followed Burmese affairs for more than a decade.

Already along the Burmese border with China, every small town has restaurants and stores run by migrants from China, many have been there for more than a decade. Chinese teachers are also being recruited to work in the Chinese-language and bilingual schools that are popping up in many of the major cities in northern Burma. Already in the major border towns in Shan state like Mongla and Muse, only the Chinese currency _ the renminbi or yuan _ is used; Chinese calligraphy dominates the landscape: billboards, street signs and shopfronts almost all use Chinese characters exclusively; very little Burmese writing can be seen.

In some towns along the border the clocks are set to Beijing standard time rather than Burma’s clock to facilitate cross-border contact, according to local Burmese officials.

The Chinese authorities are planning to use Burma as a crucial transit point, not just for the products grown or manufactured in southwest China, but as a means of transporting goods from the country’s economic power-houses along the eastern seaboard.

”By shifting the transit route away from the South China Sea and the Malacca Straits to using Burma’s port facilities to reach South Asia, the Middle East and Europe they hope to avoid the dangers of crowded shipping lanes and pirates _ the Malacca dilemma as Beijing calls it,” a senior Chinese analyst told the Bangkok Post on condition of anonymity.

But Beijing is also well aware that the junta’s failure to implement political reform may backfire, not only for Rangoon, but on China as well. Already under increased international criticism for its unswerving support of what the international community regards as pariah states _ especially Burma, North Korea, Sudan, and Zimbabwe _ Beijing has begun to distance itself and take a more active role in trying to influence its allies to be more flexible. That has certainly been the case as far as Rangoon is concerned.

Beijing has been far more pro-active behind the scenes in pressing Burma’s military rulers to introduce political and economic reform as quickly as possible. They have also quietly raised the vexed issue of the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, suggesting that she be freed. But when Gen Thura Shwe Mann told the Chinese leaders in May that this was impossible as she still posed a security risk, they backed off.

Instead, they are now pressing both Washington and Rangoon, behind the scenes, to start a secret dialogue to try to overcome some of the issues which keep Burma internationally isolated.

Beijing is also alarmed by Rangoon’s nuclear ambitions and the recent deal with Moscow to build a nuclear reactor in Burma. China’s leaders have already communicated their displeasure and warned the Burmese they could not rely on Chinese assistance if anything went wrong.

China’s leaders were also extremely annoyed at Rangoon’s re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.

”They no longer trust North Korea and were dismayed that two important neighbours had effectively gone behind their backs and resumed relations,” according to a Chinese government source.

Officially, of course, Beijing welcomed the development.

But despite these irritations, China’s leaders have realised that Burma is by far its strongest ally in Southeast Asia.

For some time Beijing has eyed suspiciously the growing American influence in the region, especially in what it regards as its backyard and natural sphere of influence _ Cambodia and Vietnam, and to some extent in Laos as well.

China’s leaders now fear that in Thailand the opposition Democrat party is going to sweep back into power if elections are held according to plan in November or December. The Chinese also see the Democrats as avowedly pro-US and have already threatened to overhaul or rescind the Free Trade Agreement between Bangkok and Beijing. And, of course, Beijing would not welcome Aung San Suu Kyi coming to power in Rangoon, as they regard her as an American puppet.

So for Beijing, this growing potentially hostile environment in Asia means their only trustworthy and truly anti-American ally in the region remains Burma’s military regime.