This week, we have seen Burmese monks take to the streets and confront the regime with a bold demand for an official apology for its violent crackdown on monks in Pakokku, central Burma. The events in Rangoon and other cities have drawn the attention of Burma interest groups around the world. The big question remains: where will these events lead, where do things go from here?

A violent crackdown by regime authorities and hired thugs remains a distinct possibility, reluctant as we are to envision such a disaster. But the regime, blind to the lessons of the past, knows it can, with impunity, resort again to force in stamping out the democratic aspirations of the oppressed Burmese people.

The main reason for its confidence can be summed up in one word—China. “This [Burmese] regime has survived to this day because of Chinese government support— ¬ financial, diplomatic and military,” said Aung Din, of the US Campaign for Burma, in Washington.

Pressure is building on China to end its support for Burma’s military government, with many campaign groups targeting Beijing’s huge prestige event, the 2008 Olympics. The point may indeed be reached where China has to choose between the success of the Olympics and its relationship with Burma’s generals.

China can expect an intensification of protests against its Burma policy as the date of the Olympics approaches. At the same time, confident of continuing Chinese support, the regime can be expected to step up its suppression of all internal dissent, with the use of force if necessary.

The regime can’t afford to be too confident, however. If it continues with its heavy-handed actions against protesting monks and activists, political and social turmoil could result—and that wouldn’t be in China’s interests.

Ethnic cease-fire groups along the border with China and Thailand could exploit the situation, resulting in instability spilling over Burma’s borders with those countries.

China should also realize that its unconditional support for the regime in Naypyidaw has tarnished its image and its ambition to take its place on the world stage as a respected super power.

Since 1988, China’s material support for Burma has included the provision of jet fighters, naval ships and military hardware, and help with the construction of naval facilities and listening posts.

China and Burma have actively cooperated in many non-military areas, such as building dams, power stations, roads, bridges, factories and telecommunication facilities, projects which allow Chinese companies to gain advantages in exploiting Burma’s natural resources. Since 1988, Burma has also heavily depended on China for development assistance and loans.

Gas is the latest Burmese resource to be tapped by China. During a visit to Beijing in June, Burma’s Secretary one and Acting Prime Minister Lt Gen Thein Sein announced that Burma would begin exporting natural gas to its neighbor.

China is also conducting a survey on the feasibility of using Burma’s Yanbyai island as an oil terminal to supply a planned 1,440-kilometer pipeline from the Bay of Bengal to Yunnan.

During Thein Sein’s June visit, it was confirmed that Burma and China are also negotiating joint ventures in mining and hydro-electric power projects.

Small wonder then that China was referred to as a “most trusted friend” when then Prime Minister Li Peng visited Burma in 1994. To this day, that characterization remains true, confirmed also in the international political arena, where Burma can invariably reply on China’s support.

Within the UN and other, regional organizations, Burma’s “most trusted friend” has guaranteed the survival and stability of the regime in Naypyidaw.

Against that background, it is important that the international opposition to China’s Burma policy continues and even intensifies. India, which also shamelessly supports the Burmese regime, must be made to feel the weight of international pressure, too.

Both China and India must be told in the clearest terms that support for Burma’s malevolent regime has its price. In the case of China, that price could include the success of the 2008 Olympics—calls for a boycott of the event are already growing louder.