The military’s crackdown on Burma’s protesting monks and their supporters was not unexpected. Foreign observers have been warning that the military regime was likely to use force to suppress the demonstrations.

One seasoned writer on Burma, Bertil Lintner, a Swedish journalist and author, said: “Regardless of what international opinion says, they [military rulers] have done that before and they would not hesitate to do it again.”

Warnings of firm action were first heard on Monday, when the Religious Affairs Minister, Brig-Gen Thura Myint Maung, was quoted on state-owned radio as saying that unless the monks stopped their protests action would be taken against them “according to the existing law.”

He blamed the protests on “destructive elements who do not want to see peace, stability and progress in the country”.

Lintner said that, based on past experience, particularly the 1988 uprising, the military could be expected to “send in agents, provocateurs, perhaps disguised as monks, to stir up trouble, giving the regime an excuse to step in to restore law and order.”

An estimated 3,000 students and monks died in the pro-democracy uprising in 1988.

Andrew Selth, a defense analyst and commentator on Burma, said there was a possibility of rank-and-file soldiers joining in the demonstrations. “Over the next few weeks the loyalty and cohesion of the armed forces will be critical,” said Sydney-based Selth.

Some air force and navy personnel joined in the 1988 uprising, although few army soldiers changed sides. A former army commander in chief,Tin Oo, did join the demonstrators, however.

Selth said if the current crackdown resulted in bloodshed, a mutiny within the Burmese armed forces, which number 400,000, was a possibility.

In 1988, demonstrators carried portraits of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi , but that afforded no protection from the bullets of the security forces. This time, the protesters have been carrying images of the Buddha, and they don’t appear to be a defense against regime brutality, either.

Significantly, troops of two light infantry divisions involved in the 1988 massacre are now stationed in Rangoon. Reinforcements have been called in from frontline positions in Karen State.

One important difference between 1988 and September 2007 is the accessibility of information about what is happening in Burma. The picture of a dead monk, shot by regime forces, could enflame the whole nation and would surely have international repercussions.