The prediction is based on an analysis paper by the Seven Alliances, released today. The paper sets out flaws in the draft constitution, and the referendum process. Key concerns about the draft constitution outlined in the paper include:

• If adopted, the constitution will serve to further consolidate military rule in the country for the foreseeable future;

• The military will control 25% of parliamentary seats, making further constitutional change very difficult;

• The Chief of Staff and the army will be above the state judiciary system, and can manipulate it as they choose; imposing martial law and ousting the civilian administration if it is deemed to pose a threat to national security

• The Chief of Staff would appoint the President. The President must be from a military background

• Rules surrounding eligibility to enter elections effectively exclude Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other pro-democracy activists from standing in future elections.

As the referendum approaches, there is mounting evidence of the regime’s desperate efforts to control the outcome of the referendum and retain power, claim the Seven Alliances. “Members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and democracy activists who advocate voting against the draft State Constitution in the upcoming Referendum have been intimidated, arrested and beaten,” states the analysis paper.

“The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and its thugs are using heavy-handed tactics to persuade people to support the referendum. Civil servants have been told to vote in favor or risk losing their jobs.

Ordinary citizens have been threatened with fines or imprisonment if they vote no. Security forces are preventing peaceful demonstrations from taking place, and many pro-democracy activists have already been arrested,” said Aung Moe Zaw, a spokesperson for the Seven Alliances. “Despite this climate of fear and intimidation, activists in Burma are continuing with their ‘vote no’ campaign and momentum is gathering. People are showing great courage in showing their dissent to the regime,” added Aung Moe Zaw.

The Seven Alliances are calling on ordinary people around the world to take part in “Vote ‘No’ Global Protest Week” from 3-9 May, by protesting outside the Burmese embassy in their country. “This week of solidarity protests around the world will be a huge moral support to the people of Burma, who have been unwavering in their defiance of the repressive military regime and will vote against its draft constitution on May 10,” said the spokesperson.

For further information and media interviews, please contact:

Mr. Myint Thein (087 808 3552), National Council of Union of Burma

Mr. Aung Moe Zaw (087 206 0587), Forum for Democracy in Burma

Dr. Salai Lian Hmong Sakhon (081 029 6100), Ethnic Nationalities Council

Hseng Noung (081 884 4963), Women’s League of Burma