Burma’s rice-growing heartland has been devastated by Cyclone Nargis, experts said on Wednesday, posing worries of long-term food shortages for the secretive, impoverished country.

The Rome-based UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that five states hit hardest by Saturday’s cyclone produce 65 percent of the country’s rice. The region also is home to 80 percent of its aquaculture, 50 percent of its poultry and 40 percent of its pig production, the FAO said.

Of most concern is the rice production, since the impoverished country has produced enough to feed itself and, more recently, stave off the rising prices that have hit other parts of the region.

“There is likely going to be incredibly shortages in the next 18 to 24 months,” said Sean Turnell, an economist specializing in Burma at Australia’s Macquarie University. “Things will be tough.”

The world’s top rice producer before World War II, Burma has in the past four decades seen its rice exports drop from nearly 4 million tons per year to only about 600,000 tons this year.

The country’s exports are so small these days that few expect the cyclone to have any impact on world rice prices.

Mostly due to the mismanagement by the country’s ruling generals, the country’s road network and rice storage facilities have fallen into disrepair and such things as fertilizer and credit for farmers is almost nonexistent.

Now, the country must confront the reality that entire rice-growing regions are under water. Many of the roads and bridges needed to transport what crop can be salvaged may have been destroyed by the cyclone.

The UN World Food Program, which has started feeding the estimated 1 million homeless people in Burma, said there are immediate concerns about salvaging harvested rice in the flooded Irrawaddy delta, known as the country’s rice bowl. It also warned that the rice harvest in the Pegu Division could be lost since it was still in the ground, and future plantings in the delta could be threatened due to “salinity and decrease of nutrients” from the storm’s tidal surges.

The FAO also predicted that annual crops of rice along with oil palm and rubber plantations “are expected” to be damaged in areas hit by the cyclone. They are sending in an assessment team in the coming days to have a closer look.

“There is risk that stored rice seeds kept by farmers—usually under poor storage facilities—might be affected by the cyclone,” the FAO said in a statement. “Some rice crops under irrigation might be affected, if not yet harvested.”

The cyclone, which battered the country last weekend with winds of 190 kph (120 mph) and 3.5 meter (11.48 feet) storm water surges, caused at least 22,000 deaths.