Despite the challenging political environment, 10 independent Burmese media organizations have completed face-to-face opinion surveys with more than 2,000 Burmese voters in the upcoming Constitutional Referendum.

Burma News International, representing the 10 media organizations, undertook this survey, the most comprehensive and statistically representative poll of eligible voters to date.

The survey gauges voting preferences and levels of awareness of the constitution among eligible voters – including farmers, students, day workers, business owners, housewives and USDA members – from 7 States and 6 Divisions across the country. It reveals that:

•        83% of the surveyed population plans to cast a vote, 10% plans not to vote, while the rest remain undecided.
•        If the referendum were held today, 66.4% would vote “No”, leaving a significant minority of 23% undecided.
•        The survey also revealed that a significant 69% of respondents have no awareness of the details of the proposed Constitution.
•        Most respondents will vote out of “conscience” (75.9%) rather than “coercion” (17.4%). Farmers and traders are amongst those who indicated they are “forced into” voting a certain way, or given something in return.

Mu Hlaing Theint, Secretary of Burma News International, who organized and conducted the survey with media partners during late April 2008, pointed out that the “majority of surveyed respondents were farmers (31.2%). Business people or merchants (16%) and students (11.1%) also featured prominently amongst our survey sample”.

“This survey takes the pulse of ordinary voters from all over Burma, but particularly from ethnic nationality areas where there has been limited surveys to date,” she said.
She went on to say that, “Amid the utter devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis, the regime’s commitment to pursuing the vote at any cost, may result in an even bigger ‘No’ result.”

Sein Win, Editor-in-Chief of Mizzima News, a BNI member, stated that “decades of poverty and mismanagement and a lack of faith in the military as an institution is behind the strong ‘No’ vote result… If people are told to go and vote, as they have been, they will go ahead and vote. But public sentiment is against the regime, and its constitution, especially as they drag their feet to organize an urgently needed humanitarian response in cyclone-affected communities.”

“Burmese people have always found ways to passively resist the military regime, and we expect that a large number of the population intend to vote ‘No’. Whether they will be allowed to cast their vote freely and fairly remains to be seen.”

Sai Khuensai Jaiyen, director of the Shan Herald Agency for News, another BNI member which participated in the survey, said that the large number of ‘undecided’ respondents correlated to voter wariness of publicly identifying oneself as a ‘No’ voter. He explained, that “the influence and pressure exerted on civil servants and USDA members who we polled, in many cases had led to their reluctance to reveal how they were going to vote”.
Survey data has been independently analyzed by an international expert based in Singapore.

BNI is a consortium of 10 independent Burma media/news organizations: Mizzima News, Narinjara News, Kaladan Press, Khonumthung News, Network Media Group, Independent Mon News Agency, Shan Herald Agency for News, Kao Wao News, Kantarawaddy Times & Kachin News Group.

For more information, including how to obtain copies of the report please see www.bnionline.net or contact BNI Secretary, Mu Hlaing Theint secretary.bni@gmail.com