The devastating cyclone that killed at least 22,000 people in Myanmar is driving up the cost of basic commodities and could stir fresh protests against the country’s military rulers, who violently put down a pro-democracy uprising last year.

A girl drank water from a container as her homeless family ate donated food in Konegyangone, outside Yangon, Myanmar, Wednesday.

A sharp spike in food, fuel and other necessities in the cyclone’s wake is already laying the ground for another confrontation between the two most powerful institutions in Myanmar, the Buddhist clergy and the military, which has ruled the country since 1962, according to political dissidents and foreign analysts.

Last September, tens of thousands of Buddhist monks and other demonstrators took to the streets of Yangon to press for democratic reforms. The military responded by killing at least 31 people. The demonstrations began as a protest against rising fuel prices, which put the price of transportation and some key foodstuffs beyond the reach of the poorest families.

Now, prices of essentials such as cooking oil, rice and water have doubled or tripled since the storm struck last weekend, and even a large influx of foreign aid promised by donors around the world may not temper the inflationary pressure caused by current shortages.

Even so, a new surge in political protest may not come immediately. After the cyclone, ordinary citizens will first deal with the consequences of the catastrophe, suggests Monique Skidmore, a professor at the Australian National University who has studied the country extensively. Bodies need to be found, funeral rites conducted and businesses and livelihoods salvaged, she says.

But later, as Myanmar feels the full brunt of storm’s economic impact, Ms. Skidmore and other analysts say tensions could worsen with people blaming the military junta headed by senior Gen. Than Shwe for failing to warn them of the impending storm and then mishandling relief efforts in its wake. “I think once we’re past the immediate aftermath and the upcoming rainy season, then we could see some new demonstrations in August,” she says. “That’s what all the dissidents are talking about: the eighth day of the eighth month of the year eight.”

Sean Turnell, an economist at Macquarie University in Sydney, who is a member of that university’s Burma Economic Watch program, says he is struck by the depth of animosity to the regime which has emerged since the cyclone. People who might previously have sympathized with the military’s heavily nationalistic policies are turning against regime.

Some anti-military activists predict the eventual backlash could turn violent. “The situation is leading to another demonstration and another bloodbath,” says Zin Linn, who acts as information minister of a U.S.-based government-in-exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma.

Relief groups and governments urge Myanmar’s rulers to let humanitarian assistance flow into the country following a deadly cyclone.

Thailand-based dissidents who closely monitor the situation in Myanmar say state-run radio and television broadcasts failed to adequately alert the public about the severity of the cyclone heading their way, putting tens of thousands of lives at risk.

On Wednesday, Indian officials said they told Myanmar’s government that Cyclone Nargis was approaching well before it struck land. “Forty-eight hours in advance we informed the Burma weather department about the likely area of landfall as well as the time and intensity of the cyclone,” Indian Meteorological Department spokesman B.P. Yadav said, using the old name for the country, which was changed to Myanmar by the military in 1989.

Weather forecasts on international news networks — which are available to Myanmar’s ruling elite — had also predicted the storm would hit land in southern Myanmar and pass directly over Yangon. Laura Bush, wife of President Bush, earlier this week described Myanmar’s failure to warn its people of the approaching storm as “inept”.
[Myanmar]
Reuters
Myanmar military soldiers unloaded boxes of instant noodles off a Thai military plane which flew in with food and aid for cyclone victims in Yangon on Tuesday.

Myanmar’s government hasn’t publicly commented on the matter.

State-run radio has reported that 41,000 people are still missing. About one million are homeless and in need of aid, according to international relief officials.

On Wednesday, relief teams were trying to make their way by boat into the worst-affected areas in the flooded Irrawaddy River delta. China, which maintains strong diplomatic and economic ties with Myanmar’s ruling junta, flew in $500,000 worth of food, tents and blankets to help with the relief effort. But many international relief workers are still waiting for visas to enter the country.

“Basically the entire lower delta region is under water,” the Associated Press reported Richard Horsey, Bangkok-based spokesman for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aid, as saying. He predicted the number of fatalities could rise “dramatically” beyond the 22,000 figure given by Myanmar officials Tuesday.

Worsening the situation, the most heavily affected region — the Irrawaddy River delta — is one of Myanmar’s main rice-growing regions. Aid officials say large tracts of land are under water and in many areas, the rice harvest is lost. Myanmar had hoped to export 400,000 metric tons of rice this year, but that now looks unlikely.

Indeed, United Nations World Food Program officials now worry that Myanmar will have to begin importing rice at a time when global prices are almost three times higher than they were at the beginning of the year, driven up by, among other things, rising fertilizer costs and growing demand from China and India.

Since the cyclone struck, rice prices have begun to rise again on global markets as traders begin to take stock of the scale of the catastrophe. U.S. rice futures rose more than 2% in Asian trading on Wednesday as worries grew that Myanmar would soon face food shortages.

Meanwhile, the military government still plans to hold a referendum on adoption of a new constitution scheduled for Saturday, although the vote has been postponed for two weeks in storm-affected areas.

The vote could present people with a quick and relatively safe outlet to express their anger with the ruling junta by voting against a new constitution, academic analysts and anti-government exiles say. Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists say the new constitution enshrines the primacy of the military and claim the military will rig the vote in its favor.

Mr. Zin Linn, who is based in Thailand, says underground activists inside Myanmar are already preparing for a round of demonstrations in August this year to coincide with the 20th anniversary of another failed uprising against the military junta in 1988. That revolt, too, originated with soaring food prices and rampant economic mismanagement. It ended with the army killing more than 3,000 people.

Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@awsj.com