Before Burmese stand-up comedian Zarganar was thrown in jail, his stage routine was peppered with references to motorcycles. Allusions to this apparently innocuous mode of transport would have his audience tittering nervously. Like Zarganar, they knew he was referring to a form of torture favoured by Burma’s generals. The “motorcycle” of Burma’s infamous prisons forces inmates to balance, for hours, on the balls of their feet – often with nails placed beneath their soles – and to make a buzzing sound. Burmese humour is no laughing matter.

Zarganar, a former dentist whose stage name means “tweezers”, certainly never succeeded in amusing the generals who prefer to call the country they run so badly Myanmar. His criticism of the junta’s tragically slow response to last year’s cyclone Nargis, which killed 140,000 people and destroyed 800,000 homes, landed him a 59-year jail sentence, later commuted to 35 years.

Like Burma’s best-known political prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, Zarganar has been in and out of detention since the Nobel laureate’s National League for Democracy thumped the regime into fourth place in 1990′s annulled elections. Ms Suu Kyi has spent 14 of the past 19 years under house arrest. Last week, a court rejected her appeal against a further 18-month sentence imposed because she allowed an eccentric American to stay the night after he swam across the lake that backs on to her home. Thank God she did not mention motorbikes. Laughably transparent, the extension keeps the charismatic opposition leader out of the way throughout the highly orchestrated elections the junta plans for next year.

It may seem an inauspicious moment for President Barack Obama’s US administration to open dialogue. Last week, Hillary Clinton told the UN General Assembly that years of sanctions had not worked and that, from now on, “we will be engaging directly with the Burmese authorities”. She stressed that, for the time being, sanctions would remain.

Reaching out to such an odious regime may seem pointless. Washington’s policy of engagement with other nasty regimes, such as the still-defiant Iran, has so far borne little fruit. Yet distasteful as it is to sit down with the generals, it is the right thing to do.

There are at least three good reasons why. First, the alternative – isolation – has failed. Burma’s generals seem immune to outside pressure. Sanctions have never been effective: China has merely rushed into the vacuum created by the US and European withdrawal. The single biggest effect of isolating Burma has been to drive it into China’s sphere of influence.

Second, Burma is at a delicate juncture. Next year’s elections will be fought under a junta-friendly constitution, approved by a farcical referendum in which 99 per cent of the electorate was said to have voted in favour. (Presumably the other 1 per cent was in jail.) Those elections have been condemned as a sham. But that is not to say they are irrelevant. They mark the likely beginning of withdrawal from active politics of Than Shwe, the 76-year-old former postman who now runs the country. They will also change the political structure by appointing regional legislatures.

Such tweaks could be more than cosmetic. If nothing else, they are likely to spark an intra-regime scramble for patronage. The generals’ attempt to co-opt tame civilian candidates could also produce elected representatives more independent than presumed. There is even an active debate within Ms Suu Kyi’s NLD party about whether to participate.

Third, the junta’s relations with Burma’s ethnic minorities, many of which have historically been supported by Beijing, are heading for crisis. In August, the generals broke a 20-year ceasefire with the north-eastern Kokang region, forcing 30,000 refugees across the border into China. Beijing was not amused. Ceasefires with some of the other 16 ethnic groups could now be in jeopardy.

Events are in flux. And that brings opportunity. Of course, the generals are not fools. If they talk to Washington it will be with the hope of much gain and few, if any, concessions. General Shwe would no doubt like the US to lift sanctions and to provide legitimacy and a counterbalance to Burma’s dependence on China.

Yet the US has lots to discuss besides democracy, including Burma’s narcotics trade. The clincher for changing tack is a circular argument. Burma has said it will consider releasing Ms Suu Kyi if she ends her support for sanctions. The US has hinted it may relax its blockade if Ms Suu Kyi is released. Ms Suu Kyi herself has recently shown signs of wishing to square the circle. Last week, she sent a letter to Gen Shwe in which she apparently sought a meeting to discuss sanctions. At the weekend, she was summoned to meet a government representative. One report suggests she was taken by motorbike. For once, there was no pun intended.