Fear is a powerful thing. Ask Than Shwe, the military ruler who during his active army career excelled in psychological warfare. Fear can make people do things that they otherwise wouldn’t have thought of doing. Like introducing some sort of a democratic system that will ultimately eat away, in 10 years or more, all the power that the tatmadaw has over the Burmese people.Fear turned Than Shwe into a reformer. Let’s look at the issue from his perspective.

Than Shwe knows the stories of Ne Win and Saw Maung. His predecessors ended their lives in dreadful circumstances. In Ne Win’s case, he was placed under house arrest. Than Shwe did it to these men, and he doesn’t want it to happen to him.

The leader is ageing. He knows that soon he will have to announce which prince will inherit his crown. But when he does that, will he be safe in retirement? Probably not. Better not appoint a new leader at all, Than Shwe probably thought.

He came up with a creative solution. Than Shwe adopted a plan that guarantees that a “democratic” government will take over in 2010. And he came up with the 2008 Constitution—which overshadows the importance of the elections which the army now can afford to be “free” (although not fair). In the Constitution many safeguards have been built in, which protect army leaders from prosecution and loss of their privileges.

The result will be that Than Shwe doesn’t have to fear his successor or the semi-democratic government that will follow in his footsteps. He can retire, and he will in the coming years use his influence within the army leadership to get things done that he deems important.

Actually, Than Shwe’s biggest fear is not the opposition, which is weak and divided, and largely without a program, capable leaders and experience in public governance. His biggest worry will be the army itself.

A majority within the army doesn’t support his reform program. Most officers would like to continue the status quo and want to cling to their economic benefits. What is left of a general who is instructed to shed his uniform and be a member of parliament? What will happen to him if he can’t wield his rank to make money?

The biggest threat to Than Shwe is a new coup after the elections. In that case, all his plans end up in the dust bin and all the safeguards are gone.

Believe it or not, Than Shwe is the biggest progressive force in the army right now.

His reasons may be wrong and borne out of self-interest, but the results will in the long run benefit Burma. Let’s cling to that thought.

Adam Selene, a journalist based in Bangkok, has just returned from a one month visit to Burma.