Burma is in the grip of election fever, even though a date for the polls has yet to be announced. Most analysts and diplomats are now tipping October or November as the election date.The electoral and political parties laws, which will govern the process, are expected to be published in May. But for the time being at least everything to do with the election is shrouded in secrecy, though potential pro-junta candidates have aleady hit the campaign trail.

Potential candidates, who hope to challenge the military government’s contenders, are urging every Burmese to take the elections seriously _ and not boycott them.

“People don’t like the current government of Burma,” the leader of the newly formed but unregistered Democrat Party, U Thu Wai said. “Now we have a chance to change it by voting in the forthcoming elections.”

“Everyone in Burma is talking about the elections,” said the Australian MP and Burma expert Janelle Saffin after a private visit to the country earlier this year. “But everyone is split on whether it’s a good thing and whether they should particpate _ even businessmen are divided.”

There is also growing nervous tension and anxiety amongst many average Burmese, especially in Rangoon, because of the uncertainty surrounding the elections, according to doctors and psychologists inside Burma.

But young people are less than enthusiastic, and remain apathetic towards  the elections, said the social researcher and former political prisoner, Khin Zaw Win. “They are less aware and less interested than their counterparts 20 years ago, who were at the forefront of the movement for democratic change.”

People under 25 could care less about the elections _ they are more interested in getting jobs and spending time on the internet, said a young Burmese student visiting Bangkok recently.

Undaunted, the military regime is now quietly preparing for the forthcoming elections, selecting candidates and launching its unoffical electoral campaign. “State controlled media _ newspapers and television _ are full of reports and photographs of government ministers inaugurating community and development projects, shaking hands with local leaders and handing out financial asssitance,” observed a Rangoon-based diplomat. “Clearly the military are now trying to win the hearts and minds of the people,” an Asian diplomat dealing with Burma said.

Little is being said publicly by the regime, though the junta’s top leader is clearly setting the ground rules for the election.

“Democracy in Burma today is at a fledgling stage and still requires patient care and attention,” Burma’s senior general Than Shwe told the country almost a year ago in his annual speech to mark Armed Forces Day.

“Plans are under way to hold elections in a systematic way this year,” he said in January. “In that regard, the entire people have to make correct choices.”

The UN special rapporteur for human rights in Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana, tried to discuss these matters with senior representatives of the regime when he visited last month but with little success. All they would say was that the legal framework was being worked out and they would be finished in time, he told the Bangkok Post.

Curiously, the attorney general who is in charge of drafting the election and political parties law was no longer involved, he confided to the envoy. “That can only mean they are finished and sitting in Than Shwe’s in-tray,” said a western diplomat who was briefed by Mr Quintana at the end of his mission to Burma.

Until the election laws are made public, there is little potential political players can do but bide their time. Until then no-one knows how the election will be conducted, and more importantly who will be competing.

Officially there are no political parties registered to stand candidates in the election _ this can only happen after the political parties’ law is passed and an electoral commission established to oversee the campaign and the polls.

“The political parties and election laws will be revealed at the last minute even though we understand they have been completetd for some time,” said Win Min, a Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University.

“They want to keep any potential opposition wrong-footed and not allow them time to organise.”

While the main opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy (NLD) which convincingly won the last elections in 1990, insists it will wait for the electoral laws to be revealed before deciding whether to field candidates or not, the Democratic Party leader U Thu Wai is adamant that preparations need to be made now.

“The election is important, and if we don’t seize the opportunity now, it will be too late. We must decide before the law is passed and prepare,” he said. He confided that after their inaugural meeting last year the authorities warned him not to do it again, without prior permission, as the law prohibits a gathering of five or more people _ the penalty is up to seven years in jail.

In frustation, Mr Quintana left the regimes’ top people involved in preparing the ground rules for the forthcoming election _ the attorney general, the interior minister and the chief justice _ a copy of the UN’s handbook on democratic elections.

“It was a vain hope _ they would not discuss the elections in detail with him _ so he made the gallant gesture,” said a diplomat at Mr Quintana’s briefing in Bangkok.

“I don’t think he even thought they would open it, let alone read it.”

But it is the regulations controlling  the electoral process that will be critical if the election is to be free and fair.

“We cannot speak freely, we cannot meet freely and we cannot discuss freely,” said Khin Zaw Win. “That would have to change if the election is fair.”

But the signs of this happening are far form encouraging. Diplomats and senior UN officials who have had contact with senior memers of the regime have been categorically told that people cannot be allowed to say anything they want as that would be anarchy not democracy.

“Barring an election law that marks a radical departure from its past and present laws and practices, it is more than likely that the Myanmar [Burma] government will not allow political parties to participate  fully _ and meaningfully _ in the election process,” said Benjamin Zawacki, the South-east Asia researcher for Amnesty International based in Bangkok.

Meanwhile the political activists in Rangoon who intend to run in the elections believe it is too early to dismiss them as a farce yet.

“Than Shwe has promised free and fair elections,” U Thu Wai said. “So we should take his words at face value because we don’t know what will happen in reality.”

“Darkness has already covered us,” said Khin Zaw Win. “We have already lost more than 20 years and the people will only suffer more if we miss this opportunity.”