A director of the National Council of the Union of Burma tells Samuel Blythe that he remains optimistic about the prospects for democracy in Myanmar but mindful of the challenges ahead.The decision by Myanmar’s ruling military junta to call the country’s first general elections on 7 November, the first in 20 years, has received a cold welcome from the opposition and activist community. Kyaw Kyaw, a member of the pro-democracy ’88 generation student protest group, views the forthcoming elections as “a booby trap rather than a boon for democracy”. He told Jane’s : “If we cannot resist this process, the military will legitimise itself through the constitution and further consolidate its power. If this happens, we may find ourselves facing sham elections again in 2015 and even 2020.”

This is not the view of all Myanmar observers. An assemblage of local politicians, activists, businessmen and some aid groups argue that even a sham democracy is better than nothing and that calling elections could mark the first stage in a journey towards democracy, albeit prolonged.
Kyaw Kyaw believes small political parties can only hope to win one or two seats in the legislature, where they will be “swamped” by government-controlled parties, while military delegates automatically receive a quarter of seats. He also believes the regime has handpicked candidates, “preferring businessmen to politicians, even pro-military politicians” because they will look to business interests rather than their constituency and feel beholden to the military for favours.

Kyaw Kyaw is realistic about his ability to engineer a boycott. Although he draws on a network of activists, the opposition forces are weak, having been routed by the military in 2007 when it suppressed countrywide protests and incarcerated more than 1,000 suspected political operatives. Kyaw Kyaw told Jane’s: “All we can do is to educate the public about the flaws in the 2008 constitution, the elections and the implications for their future, and future generations.”
Domestic defiance

With the efficacy of the exiled opposition movement in question, governments and aid agencies are increasingly diverting democracy funds to in-country programmes designed to support civil society. Although he foresees a tightening of funds, Kyaw Kyaw believes the exiled opposition will remain relevant “as long as we can prove we have the capacity to impact the inside movement”.
He is sceptical that foreign agencies can directly promote democracy. Kyaw Kyaw said: “The military closely monitors and manipulates foreign aid agencies. When activists work with them, they are exposed, and come under heightened íscrutiny, making it impossible to work effectively.”

At the same time, Kyaw Kyaw openly acknowledges that the movement suffers from a range of problems, including a lack of strategic planning and “a common mission, goal and a vision of tomorrow”. He also believes that exiled dissidents are often marginalised by their outside perspective. He said: “They have been indoctrinated in the language of democracy and human rights, so their language does not match with what average people inside the country are thinking about. Real change both within the opposition and within the regime will come from empowering the bottom to rise up and to fight rather than from a superficial quick-fix at the top.”

Coming storm

Kyaw Kyaw has a varied tactical repertoire drawn from the non-violent methods advocated by the Albert Einstein Institution. Although he believes a countrywide uprising may be needed to topple the regime, he noted that “street protests are only one of 198 methods of non-violent defiance”. Chief among his tactics is to strategically ‘push’ the junta to reform, while ‘pulling’ out its supporters and fostering internal dissent.

Chief among Kyaw Kyaw’s targets is the military. He claims he has penetrated the institution and is undermining it from within. Pointing to entrenched staffing and morale problems, and the military’s failure to modernise, Kyaw Kyaw believes that “vertical and horizontal power struggles are likely to emerge among the top brass, as well as the rank and file”. He said: “One might think that high ranking officers are enjoying their positions but they realise that they are being used.”

Kyaw Kyaw is hopeful that factions within the military will again take up the mantle for reform. In 1988, military units joined protests, and several former high ranking army officers joined opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to form the National League for Democracy, which went on to win elections but was prevented by the junta from taking power. Kyaw Kyaw is also working to embolden citizens to confront the government on pressing social concerns. He believes if enough people demand better governance the military will ultimately be overwhelmed and collapse.
This may seem an ambitious agenda, particularly given the junta’s tight control over society.

However, Kyaw Kyaw is confident that civil movements are preparing themselves for potential opportunities for change. He said: “We are building for another round of mass mobilisation that will eventually lead to real change in the country.”